2012: no threat from nature

The chances that solar flares and the earth's magnetosphere are going to combine to do us all in on the winter solstice of 2012 are slim to none. There is no evidence crossing the galactic plane is a threat. There is no reason to believe the earth is going to flip on its axis anytime soon.

Mankind has yet to master weather prediction well enough to know exactly what is going to happen on earth next week, and the science of predicting solar storms is even worse, much less years ahead in the future. A solar flare powerful enough to cause the kind of apocalyptic damage predicted for 2012 has to be pointed directly at earth – which is around 93-million miles away, so the aim has to be precise -- at the very brief moment it erupts. Predicting doom by solar flare on December 12, 2012, would mean being able to predict the weather on the sun at a very specific location to a time window of only a few minutes. We can't come close to doing that.

Yes, our planet's magnetosphere has been exhibiting odd variations in recent years, but there is no reason at all to believe that it is going to collapse or reverse on December 12, 2012. And even if it did, it would probably not cause the widespread chaos attributed to 2012. In fact, we are just now learning that the magnetosphere has always been volatile and has flipped many, many times over the course of earth's history without any record of associated disaster.

Regarding galactic plane crossings, a few objective papers have been written that make the case for increased incidence of cometary earth bombardment as the Oort cloud is gravitationally perturbed when our solar system dips through the densest part of the galactic plane. However, this is not by any means proven. Moreover, this cycle is most widely believed to take on the order of 33-40-million years, so there is no way that the Mayans or anyone else could know the consequence of a galactic plane crossing because we still don't know the consequences ourselves. In fact, there is a lot of debate where exactly our solar system is now in regard to the galactic plane. And even if a comet is kicked out of orbit by gravitation perturbations caused by a galactic plane crossing, the chances of it hitting us on December 12, 2012 are astronomical (pun intended). In fact, that comet would have to be well on its way towards us right now for it to reach us by that date.

If the earth was to physically flip upside down, yes, it would be a very bad day for everyone, but there is no reason at all to believe this is going to happen anytime soon if ever. In fact, many years ago as a physics graduate student I wrote a computer simulation on non-symmetrical rigid body rotation. Rotation about the intermediate inertia tensor would cause an eventual pole flip, but it wouldn't happen overnight, so everyone on earth would know something is very, very wrong with our planet by now. Moreover, the earth does not fit the condition of my computer model for many reasons, not the least of which is the earth is plastic rather than rigid.

So calm down. All of the 2012 doom scenarios are not based on rational, logical thought.

However, you should not let your guard down. In another thread on this message board, I discuss my findings indicating our world is indeed in very immediate and dire danger. However, any catastrophes we might encounter will be strictly man-made. Moreover, the collection of madmen behind this literal apocalypse may very well leverage the 2012 hysteria as cover when the try to wipe us out. I mention at least one way they might try to do this in the thread which can be read here:

http://boards.trutv.com/showthread.php?t=6200

I also strongly suggest that you read the article and the follow-up I recently wrote:

http://www.vanshardware.com/2009/12/...uidestone.html
http://www.vanshardware.com/2010/01/...n-georgia.html

So don't look to the stars for our doom; look towards our world's leaders.

Hi Van

Your article was fairly enlightening, I always appreciate a PhD opinion. But I think you were too quick to dismiss the threat of solar storms. As was mentioned in the show, cosmologists predict that 2012 will be the peak year for solar activity, not necessary December 21st.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,478024,00.html

On top of that, there's a bit of evidence for an increasing number of natural disasters. I know that some 2012 theories say that the increase in solar activity and melting ice caps will lead to more and more devastating disasters up through 2012.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Categor...ural_disasters

I haven't looked into this too much, but I wouldn't dismiss it too quickly. It did snow in Florida recently, plus there was that earthquake in Haiti :/

I really should be providing better sources lol

http://informationincontext.typepad....-the-rise.html

Somebody has FINALLY hit the nail on the head!

Good post, thanks for posting. Hopefully a few people who actually believe these fairy tells will be able to see a little more clearly.

Just so people know the Mayan calendar does NOT predict the end of the world. It's just the end of the calendar, it ends just like our 12 month calendar does.

The frequency of solar storms follow a well known 11 year cycle. The next peak is expected around June, 2013. However, the sun has been particularly calm this cycle -- a reason why global temperatures have declined during this time frame -- and there is no reason to believe that the sun will suddenly and prematurely erupt into apocalyptic proportions on December 21, 2012. In fact, the recent, mild solar conditions are good reason to believe that the next solar max will be weaker than the last one we experience around 2001-2002.

Additionally, solar flares have never posed much danger. If you are really, really worried about solar flares on 12 / 21 / 2012, there are a few simple things you can do. First, turn off and unplug all electrical devices. This disconnects them from the power grid which acts like a giant antenna for the auroral currents produced by the sun's coronal mass ejection (CME), plasma shot out by powerful solar flares. Secondly, turn off all of the circuit breakers to your house. Thirdly, don't fly that day.

The power company will doubtlessly deploy similar measures once they hear a gigantic CME is headed our way. They will have plenty of time -- the light given off by the flare will take about 8.5 minutes to make the trip from the sun to the earth and CMEs travel perhaps hundreds if not thousands of times more slowly -- to shut down the grids. Moreover, any damage will almost certainly be localized to certain areas at high latitudes.

But there is absolutely no logical, rational reason at all to believe that a gargantuan solar flare is going to fire off at precisely the right time at precisely the right angle to bombard the earth with a catastrophic CME on December 21, 2012.

However, there are ways to simulate the effects of a worst case solar flare, and I discuss that in the other thread linked above.

There's been enormous hype for a 12/ 21 / 2012 cataclysm. Don't let yourselves be manipulated. Use your brains.

But you should be very worried about the information I explain in the links above. Humanity faces an immediate danger from deranged but powerful lunatics who want to kill almost everyone on the planet.

Originally Posted by FromTheOutside

how does this thread have anything to do with what the american people are going to do to try and survive 2012?

Don't panic.

There is nothing out of the ordinary to fear from nature in 2012. Do not allow yourself to be manipulated by the intense media hysteria.

Think for yourself and be prepared to fight those who hide in the curtain of fear to roll out attacks against us.

As Shakespeare wrote, "The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves." Don't look upwards for calamity, look to man.

The main fear behind pretty much anything is that we don't know everything there is to know. We are discovering new things and coming up with new theories to explain things all the time. What we think we understand at any given point in time so often proves not to be complete or even correct as we learn more.

Anyone who claims that there will be no catastrophe in 2012 either has knowledge about everything there is to know in existence or is a fool. Likewise, anyone who claims that there will be a catastrophe based solely on the current knowledge available is a fool.

I personally believe that there were ancient civilizations on this planet that were far more advanced than anyone is willing to admit. There is already much evidence to suggest this. Look at the ruins of Puma Punku in Tiahuanaco, South America for an excellent example. The advanced structure built there may well have been intended as a survival structure for the extinction level event that may have taken place 13,000 years ago (the same event that killed the wooly mammoths which was apparently not a comet/asteroid). There is also evidence that many of the mammoths were killed by dust, floods, and freezing at about the same time.

One day we may discover the fabled Atlantis and come to find that they were more advanced in some ways than we are today. Perhaps there were a few survivors of whatever catastrophe befell Atlantis and those survivors took refuge among the Mayan and Egyptian survivors and shared knowledge with them about the catastrophe and the nature of the cosmos.

Nature works in cycles and one of the more interesting theories Ive read is that the center of the Milky Way expells a "galactic superwave" of cosmic rays/dust every 13,000 years that results in a layer of iridium settling over all the planets and stars. Supposedly this cosmic dust makes all the planets look blue to us as it approaches and is the basis for the Hopi Indian legend about a blue planet signaling the end of the world.

I'm not sure if iridium is found in the geologic record about every 13,000 or 26,000 years, but I do find several of the theories about 2012 intriguing. However, the bottom line is that we don't know everything there is to know about everything is the cosmos, so it is impossible to say that nothing will happen. It could involve an energy or force that we don't even know exists yet.

I think you are saying that we should fear 12/21/2012 because we don't know what could happen that day. However, we don't know what will happen tomorrow or the next minute or even the next second. Where do we draw the line?

If you have any proof that we need to be worried about 12/21/2012, please post it so that we can study its merits. There is no proof that any extinct human culture had anywhere near the scientific knowledge and technological advantages that we enjoy today. I have already covered all of the major 2012 catastrophe theories and none of them are rational.

On the other hand, we do have real threats to worry about during the same time frame, but the danger is from man.

Originally Posted by Scalarphysique

The main fear behind pretty much anything is that we don't know everything there is to know. We are discovering new things and coming up with new theories to explain things all the time. What we think we understand at any given point in time so often proves not to be complete or even correct as we learn more.

Anyone who claims that there will be no catastrophe in 2012 either has knowledge about everything there is to know in existence or is a fool. Likewise, anyone who claims that there will be a catastrophe based solely on the current knowledge available is a fool.

I personally believe that there were ancient civilizations on this planet that were far more advanced than anyone is willing to admit. There is already much evidence to suggest this. Look at the ruins of Puma Punku in Tiahuanaco, South America for an excellent example. The advanced structure built there may well have been intended as a survival structure for the extinction level event that may have taken place 13,000 years ago (the same event that killed the wooly mammoths which was apparently not a comet/asteroid). There is also evidence that many of the mammoths were killed by dust, floods, and freezing at about the same time.

One day we may discover the fabled Atlantis and come to find that they were more advanced in some ways than we are today. Perhaps there were a few survivors of whatever catastrophe befell Atlantis and those survivors took refuge among the Mayan and Egyptian survivors and shared knowledge with them about the catastrophe and the nature of the cosmos.

Nature works in cycles and one of the more interesting theories Ive read is that the center of the Milky Way expells a "galactic superwave" of cosmic rays/dust every 13,000 years that results in a layer of iridium settling over all the planets and stars. Supposedly this cosmic dust makes all the planets look blue to us as it approaches and is the basis for the Hopi Indian legend about a blue planet signaling the end of the world.

I'm not sure if iridium is found in the geologic record about every 13,000 or 26,000 years, but I do find several of the theories about 2012 intriguing. However, the bottom line is that we don't know everything there is to know about everything is the cosmos, so it is impossible to say that nothing will happen. It could involve an energy or force that we don't even know exists yet.

I agree that humans are always a threat and likely always will be as long as humans exist. I have observed my own anger at times to a point where I either did or almost did something irrational. I've often suspected that humanity will inevitably be doomed by it's own hand at some point unless we can find a way to eliminate emotions and become like "Vulcans."

I said that nobody either should or should not expect a catastrophe in 2012 based on the available evidence. I don't expect anything to happen for sure, but I am fascinated by the various myths in many cultures that indicate that something could happen. I believe that chance does favor the prepared and I do have a strong desire for humanity to survive if anything were to happen.

Furthermore, my intrigue is exacerbated by what I suspect is a connection between the Sumerians/Mayans/Egyptians and knowledge passed to them from a civilization more advanced than we are. One of the great things I like to ponder is if they had contact with survivors of a once advanced human civilization or possibly an alien one even. The Ancient Aliens documentary from the History channel is thought provoking.

It is unlikely that we would find much evidence of such things other than all the monolithic stonework that remains, due to looting and decay throughout the millennia. However, they had so much knowledge of the cosmos and built such amazing structures it seems absurd to think they knew and did all of that without telescopes, heavy machinery, and advanced measuring instruments.

Let's pretend that an extiction event took place in 2012 that wiped out everything. Let's say that only a couple of thousand educated people survived it. They would be so burdened with surviving and providing for their families afterwards that they would not have the time or resources available to be able to educate their children in anything beyond basic living skills. They may pass down stories of their great civilization to their children, but eventually knowledge like that would fade away under those circumstances. How many of us really know about or care about the lives of our great, great grandparents even? 13,000 years later, any stones that might be uncovered from our once great civilization would be thought to have been created by very primitive humans.

Perhaps there would be areas of South America and Africa that aren't as badly affected by the extinction event and primitive tribes still live there. Some of the educated people who survive might be able to find those tribes and work with them to build structures that will stand the test of time and describe this cyclical catastrophe that befalls the Earth every 13,000 or 26,000 years before they died. Once the survivors die, virtually all of that great knowledge will die with them so they will certainly try to pass on the knowledge that would be the most critical to know.

Anyway, what I'm saying is that we don't know everything and there are a lot of possibilities that should not be discounted until we do. It certainly wouldn't hurt people to be prepared for a disaster, even if nothing occurs in 2012/2013. Someday a person may still have to survive a volcanic erruption, earthquake, hurricane, economic collapse, etc. They will be wise and thankful if they are prepared when it happens.

I agree 110% Van Smith I don't think 12/21/2012 is significant. In light of the disastrous Haiti earthquake check this out.
http://www.history.com/shows.do?acti...isodeId=525526

Originally Posted by sliver_of_hope

I agree 110% Van Smith I don't think 12/21/2012 is significant. In light of the disastrous Haiti earthquake check this out.
http://www.history.com/shows.do?acti...isodeId=525526

Actually, I live in Nevada and one of my biggest concerns would be the eruption of Yellowstone. My suggestion would be to have plenty of respirators and a good shovel to keep the ash off of your roof.

Here is a link to an interesting article regarding "galactic superwaves"...
http://www.etheric.com/GalacticCenter/Galactic2.html

Van, I read your article on the Georgia Guidestones. I was impressed with the article and I found it interesting. However, I must say that the commandments listed on those stones sounded pretty darn good to me.

I've felt for some time that a well thought out eugenics program would benefit humanity exponentially. One of the stipulations should be that it would have to be agreed to by the majority of people though. The problem is that the idea of a eugenics program is so distasteful to people now because of the horrible way in which Germany approached it. They ruined an idea that could have been infinitely beneficial to humanity. Encouraging people with serious genetically inherited diseases and disorders to voluntarily become sterilized and compensating them for it would be a great way to eliminate many ailments and improve humanity.

Such a program could never be allowed to exist under a dictatorship though. It would have to be a democratically governed program. Actually, with the advent of improving genetic manipulations, we may be able to someday eliminate such defects without a eugenics program anyway.

Having been in a discussion about eugenics in the past, I know that many people strongly oppose such things because of their religious beliefs. I certainly respect that and hope that they can respect other views as well. As I said, I believe such a thing would have to be implemented and governed democratically with the support of the majority of the people. I suspect the majority today would not be anywhere near ready for anything like that yet though. The benefits would have to be explained and people's minds would have to be opened to it.

A Yellowstone eruption could decimate humanity simply by wiping out the American breadbasket. Could it be triggered artificially? Possibly with massive nuclear explosions. There would be lots of tell-tale radiation though.

Originally Posted by sliver_of_hope

I agree 110% Van Smith I don't think 12/21/2012 is significant. In light of the disastrous Haiti earthquake check this out.
http://www.history.com/shows.do?acti...isodeId=525526

The ten Guidestone dictums are disturbing in their own right, but are vague enough to leave room for varying interpretations. Robert C. Christian removes any nebulousness in his book Common Sense Renewed. He wants a new totalitarian world order that has control over every aspect of our lives. I provide details in my article.

Originally Posted by Scalarphysique

Van, I read your article on the Georgia Guidestones. I was impressed with the article and I found it interesting. However, I must say that the commandments listed on those stones sounded pretty darn good to me.

I've felt for some time that a well thought out eugenics program would benefit humanity exponentially. One of the stipulations should be that it would have to be agreed to by the majority of people though. The problem is that the idea of a eugenics program is so distasteful to people now because of the horrible way in which Germany approached it. They ruined an idea that could have been infinitely beneficial to humanity. Encouraging people with serious genetically inherited diseases and disorders to voluntarily become sterilized and compensating them for it would be a great way to eliminate many ailments and improve humanity.

Such a program could never be allowed to exist under a dictatorship though. It would have to be a democratically governed program. Actually, with the advent of improving genetic manipulations, we may be able to someday eliminate such defects without a eugenics program anyway.

Having been in a discussion about eugenics in the past, I know that many people strongly oppose such things because of their religious beliefs. I certainly respect that and hope that they can respect other views as well. As I said, I believe such a thing would have to be implemented and governed democratically with the support of the majority of the people. I suspect the majority today would not be anywhere near ready for anything like that yet though. The benefits would have to be explained and people's minds would have to be opened to it.

Originally Posted by Van Smith

at the very brief moment it erupts. Predicting doom by solar flare on December 12, 2012, would mean being able to predict the weather on the sun at a very specific location to a time window of only a few minutes. We can't come close to doing that.

Yes, our planet's magnetosphere has been exhibiting odd variations in recent years, but there is no reason at all to believe that it is going to collapse or reverse on December 12, 2012. And even if it did, it would probably not cause the widespread chaos attributed to 2012.

. And even if a comet is kicked out of orbit by gravitation perturbations caused by a galactic plane crossing, the chances of it hitting us on December 12, 2012 are astronomical (pun intended). In fact, that comet would have to be well on its way towards us right now for it to reach us by that date.

Okay, first thing. If your going to try and show any type of intelligence. Make sure your facts are right.. This is not a 12/12/12 event as your trying to make it out to be.. It's suppose to happen on the 21st fool.

Wow, I can't believe that I went through that entire post transposing the day and I did not notice it until you pointed it out. That's very strange. As you can see from the remainder of my posts, I didn't make the same mistake again. Thank you for pointing this out. I'll edit the mistake to avoid future confusion.

BTW, you might want to work on your interpersonal skills a little. Anger management might also be in order.

UPDATE: it appears that editing is only available for the last message posted, so the typos in my original post will have to remain.

Originally Posted by Tazar

Okay, first thing. If your going to try and show any type of intelligence. Make sure your facts are right.. This is not a 12/12/12 event as your trying to make it out to be.. It's suppose to happen on the 21st fool.

I'm wrong all the time. Just ask my wife.

[Note to my wife: Just kidding, Sweetheart! ]

Originally Posted by anti-nihilist

Atleast you can admit your mistakes. Makes me WAY more inclined to hear what you have to say.